Serie A, B and Beyond: Prediction Performance Review

1. Introduction

Across Italian lower leagues, Serie A/B, Ligue 2, the Portuguese Primeira Liga and the Premier League, the prediction set performed strongly in low‑scoring markets and double‑chance 1X2, with just a couple of misses in higher‑goal scenarios. Defensive solidity and cautious game plans were the dominant themes.

2. Match‑by‑Match Analysis

1X2 Predictions

Lecco vs Alcione Milano – Solid Home Edge Secures the Double Chance

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Lecco 1–0 Alcione Milano
• Prediction: 1X at odds 1.27 – Won
• Lecco edged a tight contest with a single goal, validating the idea that they were less likely to lose at home than the raw 1X2 odds (home 2.10, draw 2.80, away 3.40) suggested. The low‑scoring nature and Lecco’s ability to manage a narrow lead underline a defensively controlled home performance, ideal for a 1X prediction.

Albinoleffe vs Ospitaletto – Balanced Clash Favors Safety

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Albinoleffe 1–1 Ospitaletto
• Prediction: 1X at odds 1.34 – Won
• With home 2.20, draw 3.00 and away 3.00, the prices projected a fairly balanced game with a slight lean to Albinoleffe. The 1–1 draw matched expectations of a close contest where the home side was unlikely to be outclassed. Both teams found the net, but the home side’s resilience ensured the prediction landed.

Mantova vs Reggiana 1919 – Draw Avoided as Anticipated

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Mantova 0–1 Reggiana 1919
• Prediction: 12 (no draw) at odds 1.33 – Won
• Odds (home 2.20, draw 3.30, away 3.20) implied a relatively open outcome with the draw as the least attractive option. The 0–1 away win confirmed expectations of a decisive result. Both teams showed enough attacking intent that stalemate risk was lower, making the 12 prediction well-founded.

V. Guimarães vs Gil Vicente – Cautious Portuguese Derby Rewards X2

• Competition/Country: Portugal
• Result: V. Guimarães 0–0 Gil Vicente
• Prediction: X2 at odds 1.40 – Won
• Guimarães were slight favorites (2.75 vs away 2.65 and draw 2.95), but the narrow odds spread pointed to high competitiveness. Gil Vicente’s ability to avoid defeat in a goalless draw validated the X2 approach, as their compact structure neutralized Guimarães’ attack.

Over/Under 2.5 Predictions

Carpi vs Vis Pesaro 1898 – Tight Serie C Battle Stays Under

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Carpi 1–1 Vis Pesaro 1898
• Prediction: Under 2.5 at odds 1.51 – Won
• Serie C fixtures between mid‑table sides often trend low‑scoring, and this 1–1 result reflected limited attacking cutting edge on both sides. With only two goals, the game stayed comfortably under 2.5, matching a profile of a cagey, territorial contest rather than an end‑to‑end shootout.

Entella vs Spezia – Derby‑Style Caution Delivers Another Under

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Entella 0–1 Spezia
• Prediction: Under 2.5 at odds 1.57 – Won
• A 0–1 scoreline indicates Spezia’s compact defensive approach and controlled game management, likely prioritizing structure over expansive football. Entella failed to break through, and with Spezia protecting a narrow lead, tempo and risk stayed low, aligning perfectly with an under 2.5 prediction.

Pisa vs Parma – Defensive Discipline in Serie A

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Pisa 0–1 Parma
• Prediction: Under 2.5 at odds 1.53 – Won
• This match produced just one goal, underlining Parma’s defensive solidity and Pisa’s attacking struggles. The under 2.5 call was accurate in anticipating a methodical Serie A encounter where neither side opened up excessively.

V. Guimarães vs Gil Vicente – Goalless Stalemate Confirms Low‑Goal Outlook

• Competition/Country: Portugal
• Result: V. Guimarães 0–0 Gil Vicente
• Prediction: Under 2.5 at odds 1.48 – Won
• The same game that rewarded the X2 prediction also delivered on expectations of few clear chances. Both teams set up conservatively, leading to a 0–0 that never threatened the 2.5‑goal line.

Over/Under 3.5 Predictions

Ascoli vs Forlì – Comfortable Win Without Goal Explosion

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Ascoli 3–0 Forlì
• Prediction: Under 3.5 at odds 1.24 – Won
• Ascoli dominated but did not need to overextend once 3–0 ahead. The absence of a reply from Forlì and Ascoli easing off late on ensured the final stayed at three goals. The prediction correctly anticipated clear superiority but not an extreme scoreline.

Entella vs Spezia – Low Ceiling Confirmed

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Entella 0–1 Spezia
• Prediction: Under 3.5 at odds 1.18 – Won
• With only a single goal, this match not only stayed under 3.5 but also well under the 2.5 line. The prediction rode the same logic as the 2.5 market: disciplined back lines and risk‑averse tactics in a tight contest.

Carpi vs Vis Pesaro 1898 – Low Risk of Goal Flurry

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Carpi 1–1 Vis Pesaro 1898
• Prediction: Under 3.5 at odds 1.18 – Won
• A 1–1 draw rarely threatens the 3.5 barrier, and this game followed the expected pattern of measured attacking and strong defensive organization in Serie C. The prediction capitalized on the low historical scoring profiles of both sides.

Wolverhampton vs Manchester United – United’s Attack Spoils the Under

• Competition/Country: England (Premier League)
• Result: Wolverhampton 1–4 Manchester United
• Prediction: Under 3.5 at odds 1.44 – Lost
• This was the notable miss in the totals markets. United’s 4–1 victory reflected high attacking intensity and transitional chaos, especially once the game opened up. The under 3.5 prediction underestimated United’s offensive firepower and the likelihood that Wolves would both concede heavily and still get on the scoresheet.

Over/Under 1.5 Predictions

Virtus Verona vs Pergolettese – Mid‑Level Goal Expectation Met

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Virtus Verona 1–1 Pergolettese
• Prediction: Over 1.5 at odds 1.40 – Won
• The 1–1 result reached the two‑goal threshold, reflecting moderate attacking quality on both sides. Neither team dominated, but the expectation that at least two goals would emerge proved accurate.

Reims vs Laval – One‑Sided Thrashing Clears the Line Early

• Competition/Country: France (Ligue 2)
• Result: Reims 4–0 Laval
• Prediction: Over 1.5 at odds 1.33 – Won
• Reims’ 4–0 rout showcased strong attacking output and clear mismatch in quality. The over 1.5 was effectively settled early, as Reims repeatedly broke through Laval’s weak defensive structure.

Frosinone vs Juve Stabia – Dominant Display from the Hosts

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Frosinone 3–0 Juve Stabia
• Prediction: Over 1.5 at odds 1.33 – Won
• Frosinone controlled proceedings, scoring three without reply. The prediction correctly identified Frosinone’s attacking superiority and Juve Stabia’s defensive vulnerabilities, leading to a straightforward over.

Pisa vs Parma – Narrow Scoreline Undercuts Over Expectation

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Pisa 0–1 Parma
• Prediction: Over 1.5 at odds 1.44 – Lost
• Despite Parma’s win, only one goal was scored. This prediction overestimated either Pisa’s ability to contribute offensively or Parma’s incentive to chase further goals once ahead. A cautious approach from both sides kept the total below the 1.5 threshold.

Both Teams to Score (Goal Goal) Predictions

Wolverhampton vs Manchester United – Open Premier League Contest

• Competition/Country: England (Premier League)
• Result: Wolverhampton 1–4 Manchester United
• Prediction: Both Teams to Score (BTS) at odds 1.70 – Won
• With a 1–4 result, both teams easily obliged. Wolves’ goal confirmed their counter‑attacking threat, while United’s four goals reflected top‑end attacking quality. An open style, especially after the first goal, supported a high probability of goals at both ends.

Albinoleffe vs Ospitaletto – Even Match with Shared Goals

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Albinoleffe 1–1 Ospitaletto
• Prediction: BTS at odds 1.98 – Won
• The 1–1 scoreline highlighted balanced offensive capabilities and comparable levels, with neither defense completely on top. Once one side scored, the other found enough space and momentum to respond.

Padova vs Cesena – Balanced Serie B Clash

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Padova 1–1 Cesena
• Prediction: BTS at odds 2.00 – Won
• Another 1–1 outcome in Italy, showing two sides willing to attack but not dominant enough defensively. The prediction anticipated that both teams’ forward lines would create and convert at least once.

Bari vs Pescara – Shared Spoils, Shared Goals

• Competition/Country: Italy
• Result: Bari 1–1 Pescara
• Prediction: BTS at odds 1.95 – Won
• A 1–1 draw fit a pattern of Serie B matches where both teams push for points but leave gaps at the back. The prediction correctly read the matchup as one in which both attacks could breach opposing defenses.

3. Patterns & Trends

• Overall accuracy:
• 1X2: 4/4 correct (100%)
• Over/Under 2.5: 4/4 correct (100%)
• Over/Under 3.5: 3/4 correct (75%)
• Over/Under 1.5: 3/4 correct (75%)

• Both Teams to Score: 4/4 correct (100%)

• Best‑performing markets:

• Double‑chance 1X2 and BTS were perfect, indicating strong assessment of relative team strength and mutual scoring potential.

• Under 2.5 also performed exceptionally, pointing to a good reading of defensive setups and conservative tactical approaches in Italy and Portugal.

• Misses and their causes:

• The Under 3.5 miss in Wolverhampton vs Manchester United came from underestimating United’s attacking ceiling and the possibility of a high‑tempo, transition‑heavy match.

• The Over 1.5 miss in Pisa vs Parma stemmed from overestimating Pisa’s contribution to the scoreline and Parma’s willingness to push for a larger margin.

• Key stylistic themes:

• Italian lower‑league and some Serie A fixtures leaned low‑scoring, favoring unders and modest goal expectations.
• Matches involving sides with clear attacking superiority (Reims, Frosinone, Manchester United) consistently cleared higher goal lines and supported over and BTS predictions.
• Several 1–1 results (Albinoleffe vs Ospitaletto, Padova vs Cesena, Bari vs Pescara, Carpi vs Vis Pesaro) highlight a recurring pattern of balanced contests with enough attacking intent on both sides, ideal for BTS and moderate‑goal markets.